What this country needed more than anything this Presidential campaign was a decisive victory for one candidate or another. We didn't get it. 

As of this writing, 5 AM central time on Wednesday, C-Span and NPR haven't called Ohio for either candidate, leaving the electoral college tally at 252-254 (270 needed to win). Bush is ahead in Ohio, but by fewer votes than the number of provisional ballots cast. Whomever wins Ohio wins the race.

This means that we're likely in for another set of court fights over which ballots to count and which to ignore. It may be days or weeks before we know the outcome, and no matter the final result there will be a sizable fraction of the population who will think they've been robbed. This will hurt confidence in our system, and will only serve to increase partisan polarization.

Now for the aftermath....

Despite the uncertainty at this point, it looks likely that Bush will win. Republicans will rejoice, Democrats will begin the self-flagellations.

Even though the Republican victory was by the skin of their teeth, they continue to control all three branches of the federal government, and have the ability to govern as though they have a huge mandate. There's no reason to expect Republicans to offer concessions to the narrowness of the victory (why should they?), and Democratic anger will simmer for another four years. I'm sure the search has already begun for that elusive Democrat who can reach across party lines in four years to forge a national coalition (Hillary? Absolutely not, but even the suggestion will make the Republicans' blood boil).

In that respect, Edwards may have been the better candidate than Kerry, but I'm not sure if any of the Democrats running this year were really coalition-builders the way Clinton was.

The New Electoral Map
With Florida going to Bush this year, the electoral map has completed its transformation into an almost completely polarized reflection of the country's psyche. The West Coast, Northeast, and Great Lakes states are solidly Democratic, while everything else is strong Republican. Ohio straddles the Midwest and the South, and determines the outcome. A handful of other states which lie on or near geographic boundaries (Virginia, Missouri, Nevada) plus Florida are the new swing states.

The biggest cities (New York, Boston, Chicago, LA, San Francisco) are all in solidly Democratic states. Rural states are solidly Republican. This means that big-city problems are unlikely to stir the federal government to action.

The high-tech growth corridors are mainly in Democratic states. No surprise. Probably the best the tech industry can hope for in the next four years is benign neglect.

If a future president is to bring the country together (as opposed to tearing it further apart), he will probably have to be either a moderate Republican from the West Coast or Northeast (except that Arnold isn't eligible) or a conservative Democrat from the South. Perhaps I should be the first to put the name of Tim Pawlenty, the Republican governor of Minnesota, into the ring for 2008. Tim, your country needs you....

Upsetting the Apple Cart
If there's one rule of politics, its that you should expect the unexpected. September 11th transformed a caretaker president with no mandate into one of the most forceful agents of change (for good and bad) in recent memory. Even though 9/11 couldn't remake the electoral map, other events could change the short-term political dynamic:

* A major Watergate-scale scandal.

* A humiliating defeat in Iraq.

* A major turn (for worse) in the economy.

Competence?
I supported Kerry this time around, and while there were many reasons, the biggest one in my mind was the sheer incompetence of the Bush administration. I might not agree with Kerry on all the issues, but at least he would probably do a better job.

This is troubling for the next four years, since I see several potential problems which will require some finesse to handle well: extracting us from Iraq, trimming the federal deficit, keeping China and our other creditors buying U.S. debt, etc.

I only hope that with the prospect of re-election gone (and Cheney having announced he won't seek his boss's job), this administration won't feel as bound by political considerations in carrying out the business of the country.

Unfortunately, I expect that both sides will take exactly the wrong lessons from this election:

* Pandering to the base is more important than reaching across party lines.

* Saving face is more important than doing a good job.

* You can run as a moderate and govern as a radical and get away with it.

* Win at any cost.